Predicting bitcoin price movements using sentiment analysis: a machine learning approach

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dc.contributor.authorGurrib, Ikhlaas
dc.contributor.authorKamalov, Firuz
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-27T13:16:45Z
dc.date.available2021-12-27T13:16:45Z
dc.date.copyright© 2021
dc.date.issued2022-04-22
dc.description.abstractPurpose: Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) attracted a lot of attention in recent months due to their unprecedented price fluctuations. This paper aims to propose a new method for predicting the direction of BTC price using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) together with sentiment analysis. Design/methodology/approach: Concretely, the authors train an LDA-based classifier that uses the current BTC price information and BTC news announcements headlines to forecast the next-day direction of BTC prices. The authors compare the results with a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model and random guess approach. The use of BTC price information and news announcements related to crypto enables us to value the importance of these different sources and types of information. Findings: Relative to the LDA results, the SVM model was more accurate in predicting BTC next day’s price movement. All models yielded better forecasts of an increase in tomorrow’s BTC price compared to forecasting a decrease in the crypto price. The inclusion of news sentiment resulted in the highest forecast accuracy of 0.585 on the test data, which is superior to a random guess. The LDA (SVM) model with asset specific (news sentiment and asset specific) input features ranked first within their respective model classifiers, suggesting both BTC news sentiment and asset specific are prized factors in predicting tomorrow’s price direction. Originality/value: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the potential effect of crypto-related sentiment and BTC specific news on BTC’s price using LDA and sentiment analysis. © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.en_US
dc.identifier.citationGurrib, I., & Kamalov, F. (2022). Predicting bitcoin price movements using sentiment analysis: A machine learning approach. Studies in Economics and Finance, 39(3), 347-364, https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-07-2021-0293en_US
dc.identifier.issn10867376
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-07-2021-0293
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12519/479
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherEmerald Group Holdings Ltd.en_US
dc.relationAuthors Affiliations : Gurrib, I., School of Graduate Studies, Canadian University of Dubai, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Kamalov, F., Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Canadian University of Dubai, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
dc.relation.ispartofseriesStudies in Economics and Finance; Volume 39, Issue 3
dc.rightsThis article is © Emerald Publishing Limited and permission has been granted for this version to appear here (https://repository.cud.ac.ae/). Emerald does not grant permission for this article to be further copied/distributed or hosted elsewhere without the express permission from Emerald Publishing Limited.
dc.rights.holderCopyright : © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.
dc.subjectBitcoinen_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectLinear discriminant analysisen_US
dc.subjectNews announcementsen_US
dc.subjectSentiment analysisen_US
dc.titlePredicting bitcoin price movements using sentiment analysis: a machine learning approachen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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