Forecasting Covid-19: SARMA-ARCH approach

Date
2021-09
Authors
Kamalov, Firuz
Thabtah, Fadi
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Abstract
Forecasting the number of Covid-19 cases is a crucial tool in public health policy. In this paper, we construct seasonal autoregressive moving average and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models to forecast the spread of the infection in the UAE. While most of the existing literature is dedicated to forecasting the total number of infections, we endeavor to forecast the number of new infections which is a significantly more challenging task due to the greater volatility. Our models are based on a careful analysis of correlation plots and residual analysis. In addition, we employ highly accurate population data that leads to more reliable outcomes. The results reveal a high degree of accuracy of the proposed forecasting methods. The constructed models can be used by health officials to better anticipate and plan for new cases of Covid-19. © 2021, IUPESM and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
Description
This article is not available at CUD collection. The version of scholarly record of this article is published in Health and Technology (2021), available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12553-021-00587-x
Keywords
AR-ARCH, Autoregression, Covid-19, Forecasting, SARMA
Citation
Kamalov, F., & Thabtah, F. (2021). Forecasting covid-19: SARMA-ARCH approach. Health and Technology, 11(5), 1139-1148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12553-021-00587-x