Optimizing the Performance of the Fractal Adaptive Moving Average Strategy: The Case of EUR/USD

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dc.contributor.authorGurrib, Ikhlaas
dc.contributor.authorElshareif, Elgilani
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-20T12:39:52Z
dc.date.available2021-01-20T12:39:52Z
dc.date.issued2016-01-25
dc.descriptionThis article is not available at CUD collection. The version of scholarly record of this article is published in International Journal of Economics and Finance (2016), available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n2p171en_US
dc.description.abstractMost technical analysis tools focus traditionally on the simple and exponential moving average technique. This study looks at the performance of an optimized fractal adaptive moving average strategy over different frequency intervals, where the Euro/US Dollar currency pair is analyzed due to the increased correlation between the Euro Index and EUR/USD, and the Dollar Index and EUR/USD over the last year compared to the last 15 years. The optimized strategy is evaluated against a buy-and-hold strategy over the 2000- 2015 period, using annualized returns, annualized risk and Sharpe performance measure. Due to the existence of different number of long and short trades in every trading scenario, this paper proposes the use of a new measure called the Sharpe/Total trades ratio which takes into account the number of trades when evaluating the different trading strategies. Findings strongly support the use of the adaptive fractal moving average model over the naïve buy-and-hold strategy where the former yielded higher annualized returns, lower annualized risk, a higher Sharpe value, although it was subject to more trades than the buy-and-hold strategy. The best market timing strategy occurred when using 131 daily fractal data with a Sharpe/Total trades ratio of 0.31%.en_US
dc.identifier.citationGurrib, I., & Elshareif, E. (2016). Optimizing the performance of the fractal adaptive moving average strategy: The case of EUR/USD. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(2), 171-178. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n2p171en_US
dc.identifier.issn1916-971X
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n2p171
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12519/316
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherCanadian Center of Science and Educationen_US
dc.relationAuthors Affiliations : Ikhlaas Gurrib & Elgilani Elshareif, School of Graduate Studies, Canadian University Dubai, Dubai, UAE
dc.relation.ispartofseriesInternational Journal of Economics and Finance;Vol. 8, No. 2
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
dc.rights.holderCopyright : Copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal.
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectadaptive fractal moving averageen_US
dc.subjectforeign currency marketen_US
dc.subjecttrading strategyen_US
dc.titleOptimizing the Performance of the Fractal Adaptive Moving Average Strategy: The Case of EUR/USDen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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